Arsenal's Alex Baena Pursuit Pushed to Summer 2026 as Atlético Blocks Winter Exit

Arsenal will wait until summer 2026 to pursue Atlético Madrid's Alex Baena after the Spanish club ruled out a January sale. The delay leaves manager Mikel Arteta without the left-sided creator he identified as a fix for the Gunners' buildup issues, forcing him to manage with Martin Ødegaard, Fabio Vieira, and Emile Smith Rowe through the Champions League knockout rounds and the Premier League run-in.

Atlético's position is straightforward. Baena, 26, signed a contract extension through June 2029 in September, and Diego Simeone's squad is five points off the LaLiga pace with fixtures against Real Madrid and Barcelona still to come. Moving a rotational attacker mid-season would thin a bench already missing Marcos Llorente to injury. Arsenal's initial contact came in November, when sporting director Edu Gaspar floated a £55m package structured around summer delivery. Atlético declined to negotiate before May.

The holdup matters because Arsenal's attacking midfield depth is a visible constraint. Ødegaard played 38 Premier League matches last season, and Smith Rowe's minutes dropped 41% year-over-year as fitness questions persisted. Vieira, brought in for £34m from Porto in 2022, has not solved the rotation problem; his pressing numbers lag Arteta's minimum standard, and he started just 14 league matches in 2024. Baena's profile—left-footed, comfortable in half-spaces, 4.2 progressive passes per 90 in LaLiga—maps directly to what Arsenal lacks when Ødegaard is marked out or unavailable. The January window was meant to add that redundancy before the April fixture pile-up. Now it will not.

Arsenal's transfer budget remains elastic, but the summer allocation will be contested. The club is monitoring Sporting CP defender Ousmane Diomande, whose release clause sits at €80m, and has received early soundings on PSV Eindhoven winger Johan Bakayoko, 21, whose deal expires in 2027. If Arsenal commit £55m-£65m to Baena in June, those pursuits compress into a zero-sum negotiation with ownership. Stan Kroenke has backed Arteta's spending—£701m across five windows—but the American's patience has limits when revenues flatten. Arsenal's matchday income rose 6% last fiscal year, but Champions League distribution is the real variable. Exit before the quarterfinals, and the Baena budget starts to look discretionary.

Atlético's summer timeline also gives other clubs permission to enter. Barcelona technical director Deco has a standing relationship with Baena's camp, and Jorge Mendes, whose Gestifute portfolio includes three Atlético first-teamers, could broker a swap structure involving Ansu Fati or Ferran Torres if Barça's wage cap loosens. Manchester United scouted Baena twice in October, though their midfield priorities currently tilt defensive.

Watch whether Arsenal make a fallback move in January. Arteta's list includes Real Sociedad's Takefusa Kubo, whose contract runs through 2029 but whose playing time has slipped under new manager Imanol Alguacil. Kubo would cost £42m-£48m and deliver similar output on the right. The other variable is Atlético's spring form. If Simeone's side falls out of the title race by March, the club's June asking price for Baena could drop 10%-15%, creating an opening for Arsenal to negotiate below £50m. The Gunners' scouting team will attend Atlético's Champions League fixtures in February to update their evaluation.

Baena's agent, Carlos Barros, has not commented on Arsenal's interest, but two people familiar with the player's thinking say he is open to a Premier League move if Atlético finishes outside the top three and loses automatic Champions League qualification. That scenario would trigger a broader Madrid roster reset, making multiple exits likely. Arsenal's willingness to wait suggests they believe that outcome is more probable than not.