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Sports EdgeWELL POURNovember 8, 20264 min readAd-free
Dodgers Circle Tarik Skubal as Rotation Insurance While $106M Snell Deal Ages Fast
Detroit's left-hander becomes LA's pivot if Ohtani rehabilitation timeline slips or Glasnow velocity dips.
Sports Edge deskSports Edge · Huang GoodmanSource: CBS Sports ↗
In plain words
LA's Skubal pursuit tests whether Friedman values innings certainty over prospect depth as Ohtani rehab and Glasnow workload create rotation risk.
$182M
five-year commitment in late November
27
posted a
192 innings
last season
52 walks
the best K-rate among qualified left-handers with sub-2
The Los Angeles Dodgers are pursuing Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, league sources confirm, with the club maintaining a standing offer to catcher Mitch Garver as organizational depth insurance. The Skubal inquiry marks LA's second look at premium rotation depth in three weeks, following Blake Snell's $182M five-year commitment in late November.
Skubal, 27, posted a 2.39 ERA across 192 innings last season, finishing third in AL Cy Young balloting. He threw 228 strikeouts against 52 walks, the best K-rate among qualified left-handers with sub-2.50 ERAs. Detroit controls him through 2026 via arbitration, with projected salary escalation from $8.4M this season to roughly $22M in his final arb year. Detroit's ask, per three rival front offices, begins at four premium prospects including two from a team's top-ten organizational list. The Dodgers rank fourth in MLB pipeline depth by FanGraphs composite, but president Andrew Friedman has historically avoided surrendering multiple top-tier prospects for controlled pitchers after the Tyler Glasnow acquisition cost Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca.
The pursuit matters because LA's rotation plan already assumes risk on three fronts. Shohei Ohtani won't throw competitively until late May at earliest, per Dave Roberts' January timeline update. Glasnow, signed to $135M over five years last August, logged 134 innings in 2024, his highest total since 2019 but still 28 innings shy of the league qualifying threshold. Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched through shoulder fatigue in September, limiting him to 90 pitches in his playoff start against San Diego. Snell's contract carries an opt-out after 2027, meaning LA pays premium dollars for three guaranteed seasons from a pitcher whose fastball velocity declined 1.2 mph between April and September last year.
Skubal changes the equation by replacing volatility with certainty. His 192 innings would have ranked second on LA's 2024 staff behind only Tyler Glasnow's 134—LA's starters finished 23rd in MLB in innings per start at 5.1. More important, he brings swing-and-miss upside that ages well: his 31.8% strikeout rate trails only Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider among left-handers over the last two seasons. For a club that exhausted its bullpen through October, logging 67 relief innings across 16 playoff games, adding a pitcher who reaches the seventh inning matters more than seasonal ERA.
Detroit's leverage stems from surplus pitching depth and negative financial urgency. The Tigers roster holds $142M in committed salary for 2025, roughly 40% of LA's payroll, with no nine-figure contracts maturing before 2027. President Scott Harris has resisted trading Skubal since taking the job in September 2022, even as Detroit finished 78-84 last season. The club views him as the anchor for a playoff rotation alongside Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe, Detroit's No. 3 prospect who threw 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year. Harris will only move Skubal if the return builds toward contention by 2026, meaning he needs big-league ready talent, not lottery tickets three years away.
The Garver subplot runs parallel as organizational insurance. The 33-year-old catcher hit .268/.373/.447 across 87 games for Seattle last season, providing LA a depth option behind Will Smith if Austin Barnes regresses or if Friedman converts Smith to first base to reduce catching workload. Garver's bat plays better than his framing—Baseball Savant rated him 38th percentile in catcher defense—but LA already ranks 29th in MLB in catcher-framing runs saved, making offensive upside the priority. His market remains quiet because catching supply exceeds demand: Kyle Higashioka, Carson Kelly, and Danny Jansen all remain unsigned despite combined 7.4 WAR over the last three seasons.
What happens next depends on Detroit's asking price inflection point. If Harris demands Dalton Rushing (LA's No. 2 prospect, a catcher) plus either River Ryan or Josue De Paula, both top-100 arms, Friedman walks. He did exactly that in July 2023 when Miami wanted three prospects for Pablo Lopez, instead acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly for depth. If Harris will take a package built around Gavin Stone (already MLB-proven, 25 years old, four years of control) plus a lower-tier prospect, conversations advance.
Watch Detroit's front office movements in mid-February—Harris historically makes decisions after arbitration hearings conclude, giving him clean financial visibility. Watch also whether LA circles back on Dylan Cease, who Chicago moved to San Diego last February for three prospects but whose $13.5M salary and single remaining control year fits LA's payroll flexibility better than Skubal's escalating arb costs. The Padres roster holds $194M in committed salary for 2025, and AJ Preller needs outfield help more than rotation depth.
Skubal's next contract could reach $250M in open agency. LA is deciding whether to rent him for two years or pay someone else $106M more to discover the same answer.
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