Giannis Antetokounmpo becomes eligible for a three-year, $175M extension with Milwaukee on July 6. Kevin Durant can add years to his Phoenix contract at $60M per. Karl-Anthony Towns, now in New York after last season's Minnesota trade, unlocks a four-year window worth $220M. Anthony Davis enters year two of his Lakers extension but remains the template for how teams handle injury-prone max players under the new collective bargaining agreement. Seven stars total—add Kawhi Leonard, Donovan Mitchell, and Tyrese Maxey to the list—face contract decision points between July and October that will redistribute $900M in guaranteed money and reshape contention windows through 2029.
The timing matters because the NBA's second apron penalties, introduced in the 2023 CBA, eliminate the roster flexibility teams relied on to fix mistakes. A franchise that extends Giannis and stays above the $189M second apron forfeits its midlevel exception, loses access to the trade market for aggregated contracts, and freezes its first-round pick seven years out. Milwaukee is already $15M over that line. Phoenix sits $22M above it with Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal consuming $160M combined next season. New York, after acquiring Towns and his $49M salary, is $8M into the second apron and cannot take back more salary than it sends out in trades. These are not abstract penalties. The Boston Celtics paid a $210M luxury tax bill last season and still cannot sign a replacement-level center without waiving guaranteed money.
The extension decisions split into three operational categories. Giannis and Mitchell (Cleveland) are franchise-defining: the team either signs them or enters a multiyear rebuild. The market for a 30-year-old Giannis in restricted trade scenarios—if Milwaukee hesitates—would reset the going rate for disgruntled stars and likely exceed the $120M in draft capital and young players Minnesota extracted for Towns. Durant and Leonard (LA Clippers) are legacy extensions: teams adding years to aging stars who still perform but carry injury histories that make the back end of deals uninsurable. Durant has missed 137 games since 2020. Leonard has missed 195 since 2018. Towns and Davis are the stress tests. Towns is 28, produces 25.3 points per game on elite efficiency, but Minnesota traded him in part to avoid luxury tax exposure. New York now must decide whether a floor-spacing center justifies $220M when the Knicks already have $170M committed to Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby through 2028. Davis, 31, is the cautionary precedent: the Lakers signed him to a three-year, $186M extension in 2023 despite persistent foot and knee issues, and he has since played 76% of available games, better than expected but still a dice roll at that cost.
Agents are watching Philadelphia closely. The 76ers front-loaded Joel Embiid's supermax extension, paying him $51.4M this season and structuring annual 3% raises that keep the team flexible under the apron in later years. That structure—maximum money, minimum future constraint—is now the template for extension negotiations involving stars over 30. Expect Giannis's agents at Octagon to push for a similar deal. Expect Milwaukee to resist unless ownership is willing to carry a $250M payroll, including tax, through 2028.
The extension window for Giannis formally opens July 6 and runs through the start of the 2025-26 season. Towns and Mitchell can sign anytime before their current deals expire in 2027 and 2026, respectively. Durant's player option decision for 2026-27 comes first—he has until June 2025 to opt in or become a free agent, creating urgency for Phoenix to secure him now. The Clippers have until October to extend Leonard before he enters the final guaranteed year of his contract. Watch Milwaukee's July 15 roster deadline: the Bucks must finalize their rotation before Giannis's extension decision becomes public, and any trades to clear space below the second apron will signal whether ownership is committed to paying. Watch also for Octagon and CAA—Giannis and Towns's agencies—to coordinate extension leaks in late June, setting the market before July moratoriums.
The $900M in aggregate extensions will not all get signed. At least one star in this group will reach restricted free agency or force a trade, likely by February's deadline when contenders assess their championship odds and sellers start returning calls.
The takeaway
Giannis, Durant, Towns decisions by October will redistribute **$900M** and test whether new apron penalties force star movement earlier than past CBA cycles.
Editorial & Disclosure Notice: This article was written with artificial intelligence from public sources and is published without individual human review. Artificial intelligence and other digital tools are also used for research, analysis, editing, formatting, and production. Errors, omissions, outdated information, or inaccuracies may occur. References to companies, brands, products, services, organizations, or individuals are for informational and editorial purposes and do not imply endorsement, sponsorship, affiliation, partnership, or approval unless expressly stated. All trademarks and other intellectual property remain the property of their respective owners. Opinions, analysis, estimates, and commentary are informational only and should not be construed as financial, investment, legal, tax, medical, procurement, or other professional advice. Information may be corrected, clarified, or updated after publication. Corrections or removal requests: jenny@pops4.com.
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