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Two playoff teams already projecting top-five picks two years out signals the league's next quarterback reset window opening in 2027.
2027 NFL Draft
according to early-cycle projections published this week
$52 million
in dead cap from Justin Herbert's extension if they…
$81 million
in guarantees to Jalen Hurts through 2028
41 percent
across his three NFL stops
The Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles are tracking toward top-five selections in the 2027 NFL Draft, according to early-cycle projections published this week. Both organizations finished the 2024 season in the playoffs. Two years is a long time in the NFL.
Projections at this stage carry limited predictive weight—front offices turn over, quarterbacks get hurt, tanking incentives shift as the calendar tightens. But the models aggregate current roster construction, coaching tenure risk, and quarterback contract exposure. The Chargers hold $52 million in dead cap from Justin Herbert's extension if they move on after 2026. The Eagles carry $81 million in guarantees to Jalen Hurts through 2028. Both clubs are inside the top twelve in projected cap strain over the next two years, per Over The Cap's rolling forecasts. That financial architecture matters when a team starts 2-6.
The 2027 draft class is already drawing scout attention for quarterback depth. Three Power Four starters—Georgia's Carson Beck (redshirt junior in 2024), Texas' Arch Manning (redshirt sophomore), and Ohio State's Julian Sayin (true freshman)—are projected first-round talents if they declare on schedule. That's unusually early consensus. By comparison, the 2026 class entered this season with one clear QB1 (Colorado's Shedeur Sanders). The league's quarterback reset cycle runs on three-to-four-year intervals; the last major wave was 2020-2021 (Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Hurts). Teams with veteran contracts that expire or become cuttable in 2027—the Chargers, Eagles, Steelers, Buccaneers—are already gaming out draft capital.
The Chargers' slide reflects post-Brandon Staley uncertainty. Jim Harbaugh took over in January 2024, won eleven games, then lost offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to the Jaguars and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to Michigan in a single February week. Harbaugh's staff retention rate is 41 percent across his three NFL stops. Front offices track that. Herbert missed four games in 2024 with a fractured finger; his rushing attempt rate dropped 28 percent year-over-year as Harbaugh installed a pro-style pocket system. If the Chargers miss the playoffs in 2025, general manager Joe Hortiz—who arrived from Baltimore with Harbaugh—will face his first rebuild-or-reload calculus. The 2027 pick gives him an exit.
Philadelphia's projection is more about roster age than coaching flux. The Eagles' offensive line averages 29.2 years old, fourth-oldest in the league. Lane Johnson turns 37 before the 2027 draft. Left tackle Jordan Mailata is a free agent after 2025; the team has $89 million committed to skill positions in 2026, limiting extension flexibility. Hurts' contract includes a $90 million guarantee trigger in March 2026, which the Eagles are expected to convert into voidable years to create space. That accounting trick pushes dead money to 2028-2029, when Hurts would be 30. If Philadelphia finishes outside the playoff picture in 2025 or 2026, the front office can draft a successor, sit him for a year, and cut Hurts in 2028 with $22 million in dead cap—manageable if the rookie is on a $12 million annual rookie deal.
The draft order this far out is a planning instrument, not a forecast. But teams already model it. The Buccaneers signed Baker Mayfield to a three-year, $100 million deal in March 2024 with an out after year two. The Steelers extended Russell Wilson through 2025 only, keeping 2026-2027 open. Both clubs are positioned inside the top fifteen in current 2027 projections. The Vikings—who took J.J. McCarthy tenth overall in 2024—hold two first-rounders in 2027 via trades and are projected near the 20-25 range. Minnesota could package those picks to move up if McCarthy stalls.
Watch how many teams restructure veteran QB deals in March 2025 without adding voidable years beyond 2027. That's the tell. Also: Ohio State plays Georgia in the College Football Playoff semifinal on January 1, 2026. Sayin vs. Beck. The room will be full.
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