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Sports EdgePAPPY 23October 28, 20263 min readAd-free
NFL's 10 New Head Coaches Split After Six Weeks: Three A-Grades, Four Below Average
Early performance data creates separation among the 2026 hiring class as owner patience windows begin narrowing.
Sports Edge deskSports Edge · Huang GoodmanSource: CBS Sports ↗
In plain words
**Three** of **10** new NFL head coaches are outperforming, while **four** face pressure before midseason as coordinator agents begin pricing January vacancies.
combined 14-4 records
through Week 6
5-1
despite a quarterback room assembled for under
$8 million
in cap space
4-2
after ownership spent
Ten new head coaches took NFL sidelines this season, the largest first-year class since 2019. Six weeks in, the separation is already visible. Three coaches earned A-range grades from league evaluators, three landed in the B tier, and four are trending toward critical fourth-quarter board meetings.
The top tier is narrow. Mike Vrabel in New England, Ben Johnson in Chicago, and Aaron Glenn in New York Jets posted combined 14-4 records through Week 6, with all three inheriting rosters analysts had pegged for rebuild years. Vrabel's Patriots sit 5-1 despite a quarterback room assembled for under $8 million in cap space. Johnson's Bears are 5-1 with a first-year offensive coordinator running a scheme Johnson himself designed in Detroit. Glenn's Jets are 4-2 after ownership spent $340 million on free agents in March, the third-highest offseason outlay in NFL history.
The middle class includes Brian Flores in Las Vegas (3-3), Kellen Moore in Tennessee (3-3), and Shane Steichen's lateral move to Carolina (2-4). Flores inherited a roster with $89 million in dead cap, the league's second-worst figure. Moore's Titans are installing a new offensive system with a quarterback drafted fourth overall in April. Steichen took the Carolina job after two years as Indianapolis head coach, a move that raised questions about his leverage with owner David Tepper, who has now hired six head coaches since 2018.
The bottom tier is where the pressure starts. Ejiro Evero in Arizona (2-4), Matt Eberflus in Tampa Bay (1-5), Dennis Allen's return to New Orleans (2-4), and Jonathan Gannon in Houston (1-5) are all facing early questions about scheme fit and roster management. Gannon's Texans have the league's 31st-ranked scoring defense despite returning eight starters from a unit that finished top-10 last season. Eberflus inherited Tampa after Todd Bowles' retirement but has lost four straight games, including divisional matchups to Atlanta and New Orleans by a combined 56 points.
The performance gap matters because the NFL's coordinator market is already pricing in January openings. Four current offensive coordinators are drawing interest from search firms retained by teams anticipating vacancies, according to two executives who work in personnel. The firms are Korn Ferry and Sucherman Group, which handled 70% of NFL head coach searches between 2020 and 2025. One GM whose team is not hiring noted that agents for top coordinator candidates are "already scheduling combine meetings," a process that typically begins in late December.
Owner patience windows are compressing. The average tenure for NFL head coaches hired since 2015 is 2.8 years, down from 3.4 years for the 2010-2014 cohort. Teams that miss the playoffs in Year 1 under a new coach have a 41% chance of making a change before Year 3, per league data. The math is harsher for coaches who finish below .400 in their first season: 68% are gone within two years.
The early separation also affects assistant retention. Coaches in the top tier are already receiving contract extension inquiries from their coordinators' agents, a defensive mechanism to prevent January poaching. Johnson's offensive coordinator in Chicago, Thomas Brown, is drawing interest from two teams planning searches, according to one agent. Vrabel's defensive coordinator, DeMarcus Covington, is being tracked by the same search firms monitoring the bottom-tier head coaches.
Watch for coordinator contract extensions in New England, Chicago, and New York Jets before Week 10, when the NFL allows in-season staff negotiations. Watch also for Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Houston ownership meetings around Week 12, the traditional checkpoint for teams outside playoff position. The Texans play the Jaguars in Week 13, a game that typically decides the AFC South tiebreaker and could determine whether Gannon reaches January.
The 2026 class entered with combined $520 million in guaranteed contracts, the highest total for any NFL hiring cycle. Six weeks in, roughly $200 million of that is attached to coaches whose teams are trending toward top-10 draft picks.
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