Jeremiah Smith passed Chris Olave for career receiving touchdowns and Emeka Egbuka for career receptions Saturday, accomplishing both in 34 games. Olave needed 44 games. Egbuka needed 51. The junior now owns 37 career touchdowns and 190 receptions, numbers that typically arrive after a fifth year, not midway through a third season.
The performance matters less for what it says about Smith—his $1.8M NIL valuation and projected top-three draft slot were already settled—than for what it does to the market around him. Ohio State operates a receiver room with four rotation players who would start elsewhere. Smith's acceleration compresses their NFL timelines. Two juniors and one sophomore now face a choice: wait behind a generational talent or enter the portal in December with film that shows starter reps against Big Ten secondaries.
Three programs have already positioned themselves. Oregon's NIL collective reached out to an intermediary representing one of the backups in late November, according to a person familiar with the contact. Texas made a similar inquiry through a third-party advisory group that handles portal valuations for Longhorn Foundation donors. USC's collective director was seen at Ohio State's November 16 game against Northwestern, seated four rows behind the visitor tunnel. The director's son does not attend Ohio State. The timing is not random. Portal windows open December 9 for undergraduates. Decisions are being priced now.
The economics explain the interest. A proven Power Four receiver with 40+ receptions and starter film commands $400K-$650K in NIL guarantees, depending on program tier and donor appetite. Ohio State's second- and third-string receivers already have that résumé. They also have the problem of Smith, who is not leaving and is not losing snaps. The backup tight end room faces a similar calculation. Oregon, Texas, and USC all run pass-heavy schemes and all have NIL war chests built for exactly this scenario: poaching developed talent from playoff programs where the depth chart is blocked.
Ohio State's collective can counter, but the math is unfavorable. Paying a backup $500K to stay requires the same capital that could secure a defensive end or offensive tackle in the portal. The Buckeyes already carry one of the highest NIL payrolls in college football, estimated north of $20M annually when accounting for football, basketball, and Olympic sports. Retention bidding wars are a poor allocation when the player may still leave after one more season. The rational move is to let the market clear and replace through the portal. That is what happened in 2023 when three offensive linemen left. It is what will happen again.
Smith's agent, who also represents two first-round picks from the 2024 draft, has been fielding sponsor inquiries since the Iowa game. A regional car dealership group based in Columbus is finalizing a $120K extension through the playoff run, per a source with knowledge of the term sheet. A national sportswear brand is in late-stage discussions on a deal that would pay Smith a per-game appearance fee for wearing branded gloves during warmups. The structure avoids NCAA team-equipment conflicts. It also establishes a baseline for what receiver production is worth in real time, which matters when the portal market reprices in eight days.
The immediate watch is December 9-18, the undergraduate transfer window. Ohio State's receiving corps includes five players with eligibility remaining and fewer than 30 career receptions. At least two are expected to enter. Oregon's offensive coordinator has one scholarship remaining and a need at outside receiver. Texas has two slots and a quarterback who prefers downfield routes. The first commitment will set the price. The second will confirm whether Ohio State bids to keep anyone or lets the room turn over.
Smith threw the Heisman pose after his second touchdown Saturday. The gesture was noted by voters, seven of whom were in the press box. He is currently third in most projections, behind Colorado's Travis Hunter and Boise State's Ashton Jeanty. Another 200-yard, 3-touchdown playoff performance would move him to second. The NIL deals already assume he finishes top five. The portal market is pricing what happens to everyone else.
The takeaway
Smith's record pace compresses teammates' NFL timelines; Oregon, Texas, USC already pricing portal exits for December **9** window.
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