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Sports EdgeLOUIS XIIIJuly 22, 20262 min readAd-free
Sacramento Tops MLS Expansion Model at 44% Probability, Las Vegas Second at 35%
Casino.org's commissioned study quantifies expansion likelihood across 50 U.S. cities—Sacramento's stadium, attendance history, and corporate base outweigh Vegas glitz.
Sacramento's **44%** model probability reflects stadium optionality and corporate depth; Las Vegas's **35%** hinges on unresolved land assembly and MLS's **2027** expansion timeline.
44% probability
of landing Major League Soccer's next expansion slot
50 U.S. cities
Las Vegas
30% weight
to existing soccer infrastructure—Sacramento's Republic FC has drawn an…
11,569 fans per match
at Heart Health Park since 2014
Sacramento registers a 44% probability of landing Major League Soccer's next expansion slot, according to a study commissioned by Casino.org that weighted stadium readiness, corporate sponsorship density, historical attendance patterns, and metropolitan population growth across 50 U.S. cities. Las Vegas, frequently cited in league circles as the frontrunner, placed second at 35%.
The model assigned 30% weight to existing soccer infrastructure—Sacramento's Republic FC has drawn an average of 11,569 fans per match at Heart Health Park since 2014, and the city holds option agreements on two sites for a 25,000-seat venue. Las Vegas lacks a professional outdoor team and would require new construction on land yet to be secured. The study assigned 25% weight to corporate headquarters density within 50 miles; Sacramento claims 14 Fortune 1000 employers, including Blue Diamond Growers and Sutter Health, while Las Vegas's corporate base skews hospitality-heavy with fewer regional headquarters. Metro population growth, assigned 20% weight, favored both cities—Sacramento's MSA grew 8.1% from 2015 to 2023, Las Vegas 10.2%—but the model docked Las Vegas for its transient population share, which complicates season-ticket projections.
The study matters because MLS has not publicly committed to expansion beyond its current 30 clubs, and the league's internal expansion committee disbanded in 2023 after adding St. Louis and San Diego. Commissioner Don Garber said in November the league would "take a pause" on new markets until 2027 at the earliest, but three investment groups have continued stadium site acquisition in secondary markets. Sacramento's Republic FC ownership, led by billionaire Ron Burkle, has spent $8 million on land options and architectural renderings since 2019 despite MLS rejecting its formal bid in 2020 for lack of a shovel-ready venue. Las Vegas attracted attention in October when a group including former footballer David Beckham and casino operator MGM Resorts toured a 41-acre parcel near the Strip, but the site's ownership remains fragmented across four entities, and no term sheet has been filed with Clark County.
The model's third-ranked city, Phoenix, scored 22%, hindered by Arizona United SC's 2017 collapse and the absence of a dedicated venue proposal. Detroit placed fourth at 18%, though its backers have not updated financial projections since 2021. The study's methodology—disclosed in a 34-page appendix—drew from public attendance records, Census Bureau metro data, and Dun & Bradstreet corporate registers. Casino.org, an affiliate marketing platform that earns commission on sports betting referrals, did not disclose the cost of the study or the identity of the consultancy that executed it, raising mild questions about commercial bias given Las Vegas's outsized sports betting market.
Watch whether Sacramento's ownership files updated architectural plans before the league's April 12 Board of Governors meeting, historically a venue for expansion announcements. Las Vegas's site acquisition will clarify by summer—Clark County requires public disclosure of assemblage agreements for parcels over 20 acres. MLS has not commented on either city, but league SVP of expansion Chris Schlosser is scheduled to attend Sacramento's March 8 regional business summit, his first public appearance in the market since 2022.
Burkle's group has not spoken to media since the 2020 rejection, but two people familiar with the ownership's planning said the bid hinges on finalizing a $180 million naming-rights deal with a Fortune 500 healthcare company, expected to close before the April meeting.
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