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Vail Resorts$MTN · filed: saw revenue fall 4.3% in FY2026 to $2.8BNew shipTrillion Score 505Fall Risk MediumNext year $2.3B–$3.2B sealedCheck ▾Close ▴
What Vail Resorts filed
Saw revenue fall 4.3% in FY2026 to $2.8 billion, operating margin 14.8% against a 7.0% median for miscellaneous amusement & recreation, equity 4.4% of assets. Every figure links to the filing it came from on Vail Resorts’s card. New ship: no warning signs. Trillion Score 505, #8 of 17 in its field; Fall Risk Medium (how it is measured).
What the house said in advance
Revenue for the fiscal year after 2026-07-31 between $2.3B and $3.2B, an 80% range sealed on 28 Sept 2026 · receipt #a40dab · graded in public by the revenue in Vail Resorts’s next annual report.
Figures as filed with the SEC. Ranges, scores and boats are statistical descriptions of past filings, not ratings or recommendations. Reporting, not advice.
In plain words
Oasis is framing guest experience decay as a leading indicator of pricing power loss in a business where capacity is fixed and loyalty erodes faster than it builds.
50%
over five years
$167.42
against a 52-week range of
2.3 million
season pass holders last season but has not broken…
$315 million
to resort upgrades over two seasons
Oasis Management filed definitive proxy materials with the SEC on Monday, nominating two directors to Vail Resorts' nine-member board and distributing a shareholder letter that connected operational complaints—long lift lines, overcrowded slopes, rising on-mountain food prices—to equity underperformance. The filing moves the campaign from private engagement to contested election. Vail shares have lagged the S&P 500 by 50% over five years, closing Friday at $167.42 against a 52-week range of $156.88 to $218.79.
Oasis framed the proxy fight as operational necessity, not financial engineering. The letter cited guest satisfaction data without naming sources, pointed to social media sentiment turning negative across Vail's Epic Pass resorts, and described CEO Rob Katz's tenure as characterized by revenue extraction at the expense of experience quality. The language was direct enough to suggest Oasis believes the board has been unresponsive to earlier private requests. Vail responded the same day with its own letter defending capital allocation decisions, recent lift and snowmaking investments, and pass pricing strategy.
The activist's positioning matters because Vail operates in a capital-intensive, weather-dependent, and geographically constrained industry where customer loyalty compounds slowly and erodes quickly. Oasis is treating guest experience degradation as a leading indicator of pricing power loss—a thesis that only works if the board believes Epic Pass renewal rates, not just unit sales, are at risk. Vail disclosed 2.3 million season pass holders last season but has not broken out churn by cohort or resort. If Oasis has access to renewal data through channel checks or third-party surveys, the nomination becomes a referendum on whether current management can arrest a feedback loop between operational strain and brand dilution.
The timing also intersects with Vail's ongoing capital program. The company has committed roughly $315 million to resort upgrades over two seasons, but much of that spend is replacing aging lifts rather than expanding capacity. Oasis appears to be arguing that capital is being deployed to maintain baseline function, not to solve the crowding problem that drives the guest complaints. If the activist wins even one seat, expect immediate pressure to shift capital allocation toward capacity expansion, dynamic pricing systems that throttle demand, or both. The board meeting is not yet scheduled, but proxy contests of this type typically resolve within 90 to 120 days of filing.
Vail's institutional holder base is concentrated. Vanguard holds 10.8%, BlackRock 8.4%, and State Street 4.2%, per last available 13F data. ISS and Glass Lewis recommendations will matter, but so will whether Oasis can demonstrate that operational metrics—guest Net Promoter Scores, food and beverage revenue per skier visit, season pass renewal rates—have deteriorated faster than Vail has disclosed. The fight is less about governance structure than about whether the board believes the current business model is sustainable without material changes to throughput management or pricing architecture.
Vail has not announced the date of its annual meeting. The contest will resolve before the start of the 2025-26 season, when renewal decisions for Epic Pass holders typically begin in March.
Branded by POPS4 · proof in 60 seconds
For the principal
Watch for ISS and Glass Lewis reports; institutional vote concentration means two or three recommendations will decide the outcome within ninety days.
For the operator
Track Epic Pass renewal rates and guest NPS data if Vail discloses them; Oasis thesis depends on proving experience decay precedes pricing power loss.
For the house
Huang Goodman holds no position; monitoring for post-contest capital allocation shift toward capacity expansion or dynamic pricing that changes margin structure.
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