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Holiday revenue confidence clusters around owned channels: DTC brands scale email, wholesale brands scale retailer co-op and placement.
71%
of surveyed marketers expect their 2026 holiday revenue to…
58%
of wholesale-focused respondents plan to increase in-store promotional support…
34%
of DTC-first brands
under $50
per month if you stay under subscriber thresholds
According to Glossy, 71% of surveyed marketers expect their 2026 holiday revenue to exceed last year's, even as tariffs and inflation dominate corporate planning. The finding, drawn from Glossy+ Research polling beauty, apparel, and home-goods brands in Q1 2026, shows confidence clustered around a sharp channel split: direct-to-consumer brands are dialing up owned email and SMS, while wholesale-dependent brands are pushing more inventory into physical retail and relying on retailer point-of-sale.
The mechanism is risk distribution. DTC brands control margin and customer data through owned channels, so when acquisition costs rise or consumer spending tightens, they lean into zero-cost email sends and personalized SMS flows that convert without incremental spend. Wholesale brands, by contrast, depend on retail partners' foot traffic and holiday merchandising budgets; their play is to secure better placement, end-cap displays, and co-op marketing dollars that move volume without the brand shouldering digital ad expense. Glossy notes that 58% of wholesale-focused respondents plan to increase in-store promotional support this holiday, compared to 34% of DTC-first brands.
The divergence reflects two different bets on consumer behavior under economic pressure. DTC marketers believe their existing customer file will respond to tighter, more frequent messaging and limited-time offers delivered through owned channels. Wholesale marketers believe budget-conscious shoppers will consolidate trips to fewer stores and respond to visual merchandising and bundled deals at the shelf. Both strategies hedge against rising customer acquisition cost, but the DTC path requires a robust, engaged email list and the wholesale path requires retailer cooperation and inventory risk.
For a small physical-product brand, the steal is to build both rails in miniature before the next holiday cycle. Start by segmenting your customer file into holiday buyers versus year-round buyers, then write a six-week pre-holiday email sequence for the holiday segment: early access, gift guides, countdown offers, last-ship dates. Use a no-cost or low-cost ESP like Klaviyo's free tier or Mailchimp, and write the subject lines and body copy yourself. Cost: under $50 per month if you stay under subscriber thresholds. Ship the sequence in October and track open rate, click rate, and conversion by email. That is your DTC rail.
For the wholesale hedge, approach two to four independent retailers in your category—home goods stores, gift shops, specialty grocers—and offer a consignment or guaranteed-sale deal for a curated holiday bundle. Provide point-of-sale signage, product education cards, and a small co-op budget for social posts tagging your brand. Cost: design and print $200, co-op social budget $100 per retailer. You retain pricing control and customer data if the retailer will share emails at checkout, and you learn whether in-store placement drives incremental volume without platform ad spend. Run both plays simultaneously, measure which converts better for your product and margin structure, then allocate future holiday budget accordingly.
The broader pattern is that confidence in holiday revenue growth now depends on owning at least one zero-marginal-cost channel. Email for DTC brands, retailer floor space for wholesale brands. The brands projecting growth are the ones that secured their channel position in Q1, not the ones planning to buy their way in during Q4.
Build a six-week pre-holiday email sequence now and test consignment with two local retailers before August to learn which channel converts your product.
For the operator
Allocate Q2 budget to split-test owned-channel holiday creative against retailer co-op placements and shift Q4 spend to whichever drives better contribution margin.
For the house
Lock early holiday commitments with brands offering retailer co-op support and point-of-sale assets to reduce your internal merchandising lift and improve turn.
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