For any SEC filer with at least four years of audited revenue, Edgarette publishes an 80% range for next fiscal year’s revenue: a range set so that, on history, the outcome lands inside eight times in ten. It describes how far revenue moves for a business like this one. It is a statistical range, not company guidance and not a view on the business, and it says nothing about profit, cash or share price.
The centre of the range comes from the company’s own one-year and three-year growth. The width comes from how much the company’s revenue has moved, year to year, over up to six audited years, blended with its size class by credibility weighting (Bühlmann, k = 3): a long, steady record is judged mostly on itself; a short or volatile one leans on its class. For companies of $100M and up, 2020 and 2021 are left out of their own record, because those years describe the pandemic more than the business. Beside each range sits a wider stress range for shock years.
Fitted on SEC company-years 2018–2022 for filers with $1M+ revenue, width set on 2023, then tested once on 2024, a year neither step saw, against what each company reported next.
| Test year 2024, 3,134 company-years | Result |
|---|---|
| Landed inside the 80% range | 83.4% |
| Median half-width of the range | ±19.6% of the baseline |
| Interval score (lower is better) | 2.147 against 2.365 for the prior method |
| Stress range: landed inside | 91.7% |
| By company size | Company-years | Inside | Median half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| under $50M | 570 | 78.1% | ±64% |
| $50M–100M | 184 | 88.6% | ±45% |
| $100M–1B | 927 | 82.6% | ±19% |
| $1B–10B | 1,056 | 86.6% | ±13% |
| $10B+ | 397 | 82.1% | ±10% |
Every range is logged with a receipt — the first 16 characters of a SHA-256 fingerprint of the company, the year, the revenue, the range and the moment it was logged — before its outcome exists, and is scored against the company’s next audited annual report. Logged ranges are never edited. Hits and misses are shown together on the scorecard.
SEC XBRL company facts, SEC submissions, SEC company tickers and SEC XBRL frames. No licensed data. Figures are the companies’ own, as filed; restatements, acquisitions and changes of fiscal year can move them. Annual periods of 330–400 days only; implausible year-on-year jumps are excluded from fitting.
The full model documentation — data, formulas, parameters, validation by class and by year, alternatives considered, governance — and the calibration file are available on request for commercial use. See terms of use.
Every range, flag and score on these boards is identical for everyone. Clients of POPS4 or Hako Shikin receive no different numbers, no earlier access and no say in what is published. The service lines shown beside each board describe work we do; they never change the data.
Jenny Huang Goodman MPA MSc MHSA, Principal · Hako Shikin LLC, Virginia Beach · jenny@pops4.com
Nine boards reading every SEC filing the day it lands, ten editorial desks publishing daily, an open endpoint other AIs can query, and a 70,000-product house behind all of it. This is the public record end of it.