Rotting at the dockFrontier $ULCC
Saw revenue fall 1.4% in FY2025 to $3.7 billion, operating margin -4.0% against a 2.7% median for air transportation, scheduled, equity 6.8% of assets.
Last filing8-K · Item 5.02 Departure or Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers, 2 Nov 2026
Edgarette’s full reading · exposure, experience, soundness, credibility, range
🫧 Edgar looked up Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ($ULCC). Last filing: 8-K (5.02 Departure or Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers), 2026-11-02. 17 event filings (8-K) in the past twelve months.
🔖 Exposure: revenue $3.7B (FY2025), total debt $620.0M. Experience: revenue down 1.4% on the year, up 16.0% a year over 4 years; operating margin -4.0%, down from 1.5%. Soundness: equity 6.8% of assets, return on equity -27.9%. Credibility: four or more audited years, reasonable weight. Range: 80% of past cases like this landed between $2.9B and $4.8B next year (method v4.1: its own 4-year record of growth weighed at 50% against $1B–10B filers; across 2019–2025, 69.0% landed inside, 83.4% on the one year the method never saw). In a shock year the stress range is $2.4B to $5.7B. A statistical range, not company guidance. Against peers (11 filers, $50M+ revenue, air transportation, scheduled): operating margin -4.0% against a 2.7% median; growth -1.4% against 3.5%.
Read from its own SEC filings · nothing written, nothing inferred
Gold paid out, navy kept. Kept share × return on equity = the growth it can fund itself. Facts from the filings, not a recommendation.
Speed and cash · fiscal 2025
Both views must agree for a label · a description, not advice.
| Cash flow (op · inv · fin · free) | −$525M · −$99M · $555M · −$600M |
| Investment book (cash · short · long) | $671M · — · — · current ratio 0.46 |
| Revenue swing · equity of assets | 22.4% · 6.8% |
Frontier Group Holdings is growing slower than its size class, with revenue that swings more. Its own audited SEC figures.
The figures, as filed
| Fiscal year end | 2025-12-31 |
| Revenue | $3.7B |
| Revenue, on the year | −1.4% |
| Revenue, a year over the record | 16.0% |
| Operating margin | −4.0% |
| Operating margin, prior year | 1.5% |
| Net margin | −3.7% |
| Research and development | not filed separately |
| Total debt | $620M |
| Equity of assets | 6.8% |
| Return on equity | −27.9% |
| Payout of profit | — |
| Dividend per share | $0 |
| Earnings per share | $-0.6 |
| Book value per share | $2.16 |
| Revenue per share | $16.35 |
| Shares outstanding | 227,773,074 |
| Audited years read | 5 |
Peers: the median of 11 filers with $50M+ revenue in air transportation, scheduled.
Classic signals · fiscal 2025Altman Z″ -1.08 distress zone 1968Piotroski F 0 of 9 weak 2000Beneish M not enough filed detail (needs receivables, cost of revenue, PP&E, depreciation, SG&A for two years)Sloan accruals 5.8% modest accruals 1996DuPont ROE -25% = margin -3.7% × turns 0.56 × leverage 12.21
What a terminal subscription used to buy, a filing and arithmetic now give anyone. Published method, from the same filings. Display only: nothing here moves the range or its receipt. Why? →
Health HarborFrontier Group Holdings sails as: Rotting at the dock
Health watch · 12 monthsRestructuring or exit costs ×2Director or officer change ×6
Tied up at the dock.
🌊 Visit the Bay →- filed restructuring or exit costs in the last 12 months
- slow and jumpy: growing slower than its size class, with revenue that swings more
- operating cash flow was negative
- operating loss: a margin of -4.0% in FY2025
Boat condition = number of warning signs: a serious warning filing in 12 months; liabilities over assets; slow and jumpy; negative operating cash; an operating loss; negative free cash flow outside regulated utilities; an 80% revenue range of ±25% or wider. A picture of the signs, not a rating and not investment advice.
Brand success factors · calendar 2025
The Trillion Score: 434
Exponential Success Score
Built on over $200 trillion of sworn revenue, 13 years of data, 770,002 figures. Sealed by Edgarette.
How The Trillion Score works. We read eight measures of success from Frontier's own SEC filings and test each one against the public companies in its field, here airlines. The longer and fuller the record, the more weight those results carry. A model built on past filings then turns them into the odds of thriving, which means outgrowing the field for three years without a severe decline. A score of 500 is about average, and every 100 points doubles the odds. Every company is ranked on this same scale.
What it says here. At 434, Frontier's odds of thriving come to 27%, against about 37% for the typical filer. It meets 0 of 5 success points.
What the score means
The higher the score, the more often companies went on to thrive. At this level, about 31 of every 100 did.
Share of companies that beat their field for three years with no severe decline, tested on 2019 to 2022 filings.
Fall Risk: High
Separate from the score, this asks what could go wrong: the odds of sales falling 30% or the filings stopping within three years. In the tests, about 41 of every 100 companies in the High band did. That is the group's history, not a forecast for this company.
| Money | It burned about 16 cents of free cash on each sales dollar after paying for its plants and equipment. Its cash would cover that burn for about 1.1 years. It holds more cash than debt. | cash negative over five years |
| Swings | In its worst fifth of years, sales fell about 70% a year. | -69.6% a year |
| Filed events | In the last two years it told the SEC about 7 filings on leadership or auditor changes. | 7 |
The eight success points
| Point | What it means | Place in field | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speed | Sales grew slower than much of its field. | 36 of 100 | Not yet |
| Steadiness | Growth swung a lot for what it delivered. | 50 of 100 | Not yet |
| Price premium | It keeps less of each sales dollar than the leaders in its field. | 13 of 100 | Not yet |
| Margin stays above the field | Its margin has not held above the field for long. | 7 of 100 | Not yet |
| Moat half-life | Not filed. | ||
| Brand spend yield | Not filed. | ||
| Learning curve | Not filed. | ||
| Climb in the field | It has not been moving up the size ranks in its field. | 7 of 100 | Not yet |
The actuarial view
| Credibility | With 7 years of filings, the record earns 42% of the weight. The rest stays at the middle of the field. | 0.42 |
| Severe decline, class D | About 34 of every 100 companies with this many points fell 30% or stopped reporting within three years. | 34.3% |
| Actual vs expected | Sales are 11% lower than if it had simply kept pace with its field. | 0.89 |
Top of its field: #1 Republic Airways · #2 SkyWest · #3 Sun Country Airlines · #4 United Airlines · #5 Global Crossing Airlines
Ranked by The Trillion Score. See the method and score your own brand. Tested on 2019 to 2022 filings. Odds, class and Fall Risk figures are the experience of similar filers, not a forecast for this company. A statistical description of past filings, not a rating or advice.
- 8-K · 2026-11-02 · 5.02 Departure or Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 10-Q · 2026-10-28
- 8-K · 2026-10-28 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-08-31 · 2.05 Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities; 8.01 Other Events
- 10-Q · 2026-07-29
- 8-K · 2026-07-29 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
Figures are as filed in audited 10-K reports and can move with restatements, acquisitions, disposals or a change in fiscal year. A range set from how past company-years turned out is not a promise about the next one, and says nothing about the share price. Reporting, not investment advice. No price targets and no trading recommendations. Figures from the SEC’s own data · every filing · this page as JSON · ask about another company