Old boatParadium AI $PAAI
Grew revenue 7.1% in FY2025 to $135 million, operating margin 30.3% against a 5.8% median for cable & other pay television services, equity -4.3% of assets.
Last filing8-K · Item 8.01 Other Events, 18 Sept 2026
Edgarette’s full reading · exposure, experience, soundness, credibility, range
🫧 Edgar looked up THE ARENA GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. ($PAAI). Last filing: 8-K (8.01 Other Events), 2026-09-18. 13 event filings (8-K) in the past twelve months. Auditor change (8-K Item 4.01) filed 2025-07-15.
🔖 Exposure: revenue $134.8M (FY2025), total debt $97.6M. Experience: revenue up 7.1% on the year, down 8.1% a year over 4 years; operating margin 30.3%, up from 6.2%. Soundness: equity -4.3% of assets (liabilities exceed assets). Credibility: four or more audited years, reasonable weight. Range: 80% of past cases like this landed between $92.0M and $175.9M next year (method v4.1: its own 4-year record of growth weighed at 50% against $100M–1B filers; across 2019–2025, 69.0% landed inside, 83.4% on the one year the method never saw). In a shock year the stress range is $78.1M to $208.6M. A statistical range, not company guidance. Against peers (11 filers, $50M+ revenue, cable & other pay television services): operating margin 30.3% against a 5.8% median; growth 7.1% against -0.0%.
Read from its own SEC filings · nothing written, nothing inferred
Speed and cash · fiscal 2025
Both views must agree for a label · a description, not advice.
| Cash flow (op · inv · fin · free) | $39M · −$10M · −$24M · $39M |
| Investment book (cash · short · long) | $10M · — · — · current ratio 2.10 |
| Revenue swing · equity of assets | 26.0% · -4.3% |
The Arena Group Holdings is growing slower than its size class, with revenue that swings more. Its own audited SEC figures.
The figures, as filed
| Fiscal year end | 2025-12-31 |
| Revenue | $135M |
| Revenue, on the year | 7.1% |
| Revenue, a year over the record | −8.1% |
| Operating margin | 30.3% |
| Operating margin, prior year | 6.2% |
| Net margin | 92.6% |
| Research and development | not filed separately |
| Total debt | $98M |
| Equity of assets | −4.3% |
| Return on equity | — |
| Payout of profit | — |
| Dividend per share | — |
| Earnings per share | $2.63 |
| Book value per share | $-0.10 |
| Revenue per share | $2.83 |
| Shares outstanding | 47,666,424 |
| Audited years read | 5 |
Peers: the median of 11 filers with $50M+ revenue in cable & other pay television services.
Classic signals · fiscal 2025Altman Z″ -6.79 distress zone 1968Piotroski F 7 of 9 solid 2000Beneish M 1.03 above the −1.78 line 1999Sloan accruals 74.8% earnings ahead of cash 1996DuPont ROE needs net income, revenue and two years of assets and equity
What a terminal subscription used to buy, a filing and arithmetic now give anyone. Published method, from the same filings. Display only: nothing here moves the range or its receipt. Why? →
Health HarborThe Arena Group Holdings sails as: Old boat
Health watch · 12 monthsquiet · none of the watched events filed
Sailing speed follows growth: -15.2% a year crosses the harbor in 120 seconds.
🌊 Visit the Bay →- liabilities exceed assets (often from years of share buybacks, not always distress)
- slow and jumpy: growing slower than its size class, with revenue that swings more
- revenue is hard to predict: its 80% range is ±31%
Boat condition = number of warning signs: a serious warning filing in 12 months; liabilities over assets; slow and jumpy; negative operating cash; an operating loss; negative free cash flow outside regulated utilities; an 80% revenue range of ±25% or wider. A picture of the signs, not a rating and not investment advice.
Brand success factors · calendar 2025
The Trillion Score: 444
Exponential Success Score
Built on over $200 trillion of sworn revenue, 13 years of data, 770,002 figures. Sealed by Edgarette.
How The Trillion Score works. We read eight measures of success from Paradium AI's own SEC filings and test each one against the public companies in its field, here cable & other pay television services. The longer and fuller the record, the more weight those results carry. A model built on past filings then turns them into the odds of thriving, which means outgrowing the field for three years without a severe decline. A score of 500 is about average, and every 100 points doubles the odds. Every company is ranked on this same scale.
What it says here. At 444, Paradium AI's odds of thriving come to 28%, against about 37% for the typical filer. It meets 2 of 8 success points.
What the score means
The higher the score, the more often companies went on to thrive. At this level, about 31 of every 100 did.
Share of companies that beat their field for three years with no severe decline, tested on 2019 to 2022 filings.
Fall Risk: High
Separate from the score, this asks what could go wrong: the odds of sales falling 30% or the filings stopping within three years. In the tests, about 41 of every 100 companies in the High band did. That is the group's history, not a forecast for this company.
| Money | It keeps about 29 cents of free cash from each sales dollar after paying for its plants and equipment. Debt after cash comes to about 65 cents for each dollar of yearly sales. | cash negative over five years |
| Swings | In its worst fifth of years, sales fell about 43% a year. | -43.1% a year |
| Filed events | No such 8-K events in the last two years. | 0 |
The eight success points
| Point | What it means | Place in field | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speed | Sales grew slower than much of its field. | 0 of 100 | Not yet |
| Steadiness | Growth was strong for how much it swung, so it looks dependable. | 64 of 100 | Met |
| Price premium | It keeps less of each sales dollar than the leaders in its field. | 40 of 100 | Not yet |
| Margin stays above the field | Its margin has not held above the field for long. | 0 of 100 | Not yet |
| Moat half-life | Its margin edge is fading fast, or it has none yet. | 0 of 100 | Not yet |
| Brand spend yield | Brand spending returns less gross profit than for the leaders in its field. | 33 of 100 | Not yet |
| Learning curve | Costs fell as a share of sales as it grew. | 100 of 100 | Met |
| Climb in the field | It has not been moving up the size ranks in its field. | 45 of 100 | Not yet |
Price premium $0M is the extra gross profit over a field-median margin. Momentum -$9M is gross profit times growth above the field's pace.
The actuarial view
| Credibility | With 7 years of filings, the record earns 67% of the weight. The rest stays at the middle of the field. | 0.67 |
| Severe decline, class C | About 30 of every 100 companies with this many points fell 30% or stopped reporting within three years. | 30.1% |
| Actual vs expected | Sales are 31% lower than if it had simply kept pace with its field. | 0.69 |
Top of its field: #1 Optimum Communications · #2 Liberty Latin America · #3 Adeia · #4 Liberty Global · #5 Roku
Ranked by The Trillion Score. See the method and score your own brand. Tested on 2019 to 2022 filings. Odds, class and Fall Risk figures are the experience of similar filers, not a forecast for this company. A statistical description of past filings, not a rating or advice.
- 8-K · 2026-09-18 · 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-09-18 · 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-09-10 · 5.03 Amendments to Articles or Bylaws; Change in Fiscal Year; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-08-13 · 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-08-10 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-08-10 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
Figures are as filed in audited 10-K reports and can move with restatements, acquisitions, disposals or a change in fiscal year. A range set from how past company-years turned out is not a promise about the next one, and says nothing about the share price. Reporting, not investment advice. No price targets and no trading recommendations. Figures from the SEC’s own data · every filing · this page as JSON · ask about another company