Upstart Holdings $UPST Read from its own SEC filings · nothing written, nothing inferred
🫧 Edgar looked up Upstart Holdings, Inc. ($UPST). Last filing: 8-K (1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement), 2026-10-20. 10 event filings (8-K) in the past twelve months.
🔖 Exposure: revenue $1.0B (FY2025), total debt $1.8B. Experience: revenue up 64.0% on the year, up 5.3% a year over 4 years; operating margin 4.1%, up from -27.2%. Soundness: equity 26.9% of assets, return on equity 6.7%. Credibility: four or more audited years, reasonable weight. Range: 80% of past cases like this landed between $837.7M and $2.2B next year (method v4.1: its own 4-year record of growth weighed at 50% against $1B–10B filers; across 2019–2025, 69.0% landed inside, 83.4% on the one year the method never saw). In a shock year the stress range is $584.6M to $3.2B. A statistical range, not company guidance. Against peers (36 filers, $50M+ revenue, finance services): operating margin 4.1% against a -6.4% median; growth 64.0% against 16.8%.
Speed and cash · fiscal 2025
Both views must agree for a label · a description, not advice.
| Cash flow (op · inv · fin · free) | −$148M · −$177M · $406M · −$148M |
| Investment book (cash · short · long) | $652M · — · — |
| Revenue swing · equity of assets | 45.0% · 26.9% |
Upstart Holdings is growing faster than its size class, with revenue that swings more. Its own audited SEC figures.
The figures, as filed
| Fiscal year end | 2025-12-31 |
| Revenue | $1.0B |
| Revenue, on the year | 64.0% |
| Revenue, a year over the record | 5.3% |
| Operating margin | 4.1% |
| Operating margin, prior year | −27.2% |
| Net margin | 5.1% |
| Research and development | $258M · 24.7% of revenue |
| Total debt | $1.8B |
| Equity of assets | 26.9% |
| Return on equity | 6.7% |
| Payout of profit | — |
| Dividend per share | — |
| Earnings per share | $0.56 |
| Book value per share | $7.43 |
| Revenue per share | $9.71 |
| Shares outstanding | 107,492,735 |
| Audited years read | 5 |
Peers: the median of 36 filers with $50M+ revenue in finance services.
Classic signals · fiscal 2025Altman Z″ not covered: built for industrial balance sheets, not banks or insurersPiotroski F 4 of 9 middling 2000Beneish M not covered: built for industrial filersSloan accruals 7.5% modest accruals 1996DuPont ROE 7.5% = margin 5.1% × turns 0.39 × leverage 3.73
What a terminal subscription used to buy, a filing and arithmetic now give anyone. Published method, from the same filings. Display only: nothing here moves the range or its receipt. Why? →
Health HarborUpstart Holdings sails as: Weathered boat
Health watch · 12 monthsDirector or officer change ×2
Sailing speed follows growth: 4.8% a year crosses the harbor in 66 seconds.
🌊 Visit the Bay →- operating cash flow was negative
- revenue is hard to predict: its 80% range is ±46%
Boat condition = number of warning signs: a serious warning filing in 12 months; liabilities over assets; slow and jumpy; negative operating cash; an 80% revenue range of ±25% or wider. A picture of the signs, not a rating and not investment advice.
- 8-K · 2026-10-20 · 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation
- 10-Q · 2026-08-04
- 8-K · 2026-08-04 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-05-28 · 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders
- 8-K · 2026-05-19 · 5.02 Departure or Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 10-Q · 2026-05-05
Figures are as filed in audited 10-K reports and can move with restatements, acquisitions, disposals or a change in fiscal year. A range set from how past company-years turned out is not a promise about the next one, and says nothing about the share price. Reporting, not investment advice. No price targets and no trading recommendations. Figures from the SEC’s own data · every filing · this page as JSON · ask about another company