Sound shipSmithfield Foods $SFD
Grew revenue 9.8% in FY2025 to $15.5 billion, operating margin 8.3% against a 7.4% median for meat packing plants, equity 55.9% of assets.
Last filing10-Q, 27 Oct 2026
Edgarette’s full reading · exposure, experience, soundness, credibility, range
🫧 Edgar looked up SMITHFIELD FOODS, INC. ($SFD). Last filing: 10-Q, 2026-10-27. 8 event filings (8-K) in the past twelve months.
🔖 Exposure: revenue $15.5B (FY2025), total debt $2.0B. Experience: revenue up 9.8% on the year, down 1.4% a year over 3 years; operating margin 8.3%, up from 7.9%. Soundness: equity 55.9% of assets, return on equity 14.7%, payout 39.7% of profit. Credibility: four or more audited years, reasonable weight. Range: 80% of past cases like this landed between $14.0B and $17.5B next year (method v4.1: its own 3-year record of growth weighed at 40% against $10B+ filers; across 2019–2025, 69.0% landed inside, 83.4% on the one year the method never saw). In a shock year the stress range is $12.7B to $19.1B. A statistical range, not company guidance. Against peers (47 filers, $50M+ revenue, its industry group): operating margin 8.3% against a 7.4% median; growth 9.8% against 2.7%.
Read from its own SEC filings · nothing written, nothing inferred
Gold paid out, navy kept. Kept share × return on equity = the growth it can fund itself. Facts from the filings, not a recommendation.
Speed and cash · fiscal 2025
| Cash flow (op · inv · fin · free) | — · −$309M · −$164M · — |
| Investment book (cash · short · long) | $1.5B · — · — · current ratio 2.97 |
| Revenue swing · equity of assets | 9.9% · 55.9% |
Smithfield Foods is growing slower than its size class, with revenue that swings more. Its own audited SEC figures.
The figures, as filed
| Fiscal year end | 2025-12-28 |
| Revenue | $15.5B |
| Revenue, on the year | 9.8% |
| Revenue, a year over the record | −1.4% |
| Operating margin | 8.3% |
| Operating margin, prior year | 7.9% |
| Net margin | 6.4% |
| Research and development | $214M · 1.4% of revenue |
| Total debt | $2.0B |
| Equity of assets | 55.9% |
| Return on equity | 14.7% |
| Payout of profit | 39.7% |
| Dividend per share | $1 |
| Earnings per share | $2.52 |
| Book value per share | $17.32 |
| Revenue per share | $39.55 |
| Shares outstanding | 392,701,169 |
| Audited years read | 4 |
Peers: the median of 47 filers with $50M+ revenue in meat packing plants.
Classic signals · fiscal 2025Altman Z″ 4.9 safe zone 1968Piotroski F 4 of 9 middling 2000Beneish M not enough filed detail (needs receivables, cost of revenue, PP&E, depreciation, SG&A for two years)Sloan accruals needs net income, operating cash and two years of assetsDuPont ROE 15.8% = margin 6.4% × turns 1.34 × leverage 1.84
What a terminal subscription used to buy, a filing and arithmetic now give anyone. Published method, from the same filings. Display only: nothing here moves the range or its receipt. Why? →
Health HarborSmithfield Foods sails as: Sound ship
Health watch · 12 monthsquiet · none of the watched events filed
Sailing speed follows growth: -1.4% a year crosses the harbor in 84 seconds.
🌊 Visit the Bay →- slow and jumpy: growing slower than its size class, with revenue that swings more
Boat condition = number of warning signs: a serious warning filing in 12 months; liabilities over assets; slow and jumpy; negative operating cash; an operating loss; negative free cash flow outside regulated utilities; an 80% revenue range of ±25% or wider. A picture of the signs, not a rating and not investment advice.
Brand success factors · calendar 2025
The Trillion Score: 477
Exponential Success Score
Built on over $200 trillion of sworn revenue, 13 years of data, 770,002 figures. Sealed by Edgarette.
How The Trillion Score works. We read eight measures of success from Smithfield Foods's own SEC filings and test each one against the public companies in its field, here miscellaneous food preparations & kindred products. The longer and fuller the record, the more weight those results carry. A model built on past filings then turns them into the odds of thriving, which means outgrowing the field for three years without a severe decline. A score of 500 is about average, and every 100 points doubles the odds. Every company is ranked on this same scale.
What it says here. At 477, Smithfield Foods's odds of thriving come to 33%, against about 37% for the typical filer. It meets 2 of 5 success points.
What the score means
The higher the score, the more often companies went on to thrive. At this level, about 35 of every 100 did.
Share of companies that beat their field for three years with no severe decline, tested on 2019 to 2022 filings.
Fall Risk: Medium
Separate from the score, this asks what could go wrong: the odds of sales falling 30% or the filings stopping within three years. In the tests, about 22 of every 100 companies in the Medium band did. That is the group's history, not a forecast for this company.
| Money | Debt after cash comes to about 3 cents for each dollar of yearly sales. | not filed |
| Swings | Not enough years on file. | not filed |
| Filed events | In the last two years it told the SEC about 2 filings on leadership or auditor changes. | 2 |
In its own words
From its latest 10-Q, filed 2026-10-27. This is not part of Fall Risk, and we have not tested it against past results.
"In July 2025, the Company received a civil investigative demand from the Attorney General for the state of Washington seeking information related to this antitrust litigation." Read the filing
The eight success points
| Point | What it means | Place in field | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speed | Sales grew slower than much of its field. | 38 of 100 | Not yet |
| Steadiness | Not filed. | ||
| Price premium | It keeps less of each sales dollar than the leaders in its field. | 16 of 100 | Not yet |
| Margin stays above the field | Its margin has not held above the field for long. | 3 of 100 | Not yet |
| Moat half-life | Not filed. | ||
| Brand spend yield | Brand spending returns more gross profit than for most of its field. | 77 of 100 | Met |
| Learning curve | Not filed. | ||
| Climb in the field | It has been moving up the size ranks in its field. | 71 of 100 | Met |
Price premium -$1.8B is the extra gross profit over a field-median margin. Momentum -$52M is gross profit times growth above the field's pace.
The actuarial view
| Credibility | With 4 years of filings, the record earns 31% of the weight. The rest stays at the middle of the field. | 0.31 |
| Severe decline, class C | About 30 of every 100 companies with this many points fell 30% or stopped reporting within three years. | 30.1% |
| Actual vs expected | Sales are 7% lower than if it had simply kept pace with its field. | 0.93 |
Top of its field: #1 Lifeway Foods · #2 Farmer Brothers · #3 Freshpet · #4 J&J Snack Foods · #5 Hershey
Ranked by The Trillion Score. See the method and score your own brand. Tested on 2019 to 2022 filings. Odds, class and Fall Risk figures are the experience of similar filers, not a forecast for this company. A statistical description of past filings, not a rating or advice.
- 10-Q · 2026-10-27
- 8-K · 2026-10-27 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-10-16 · 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-09-08 · 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-08-11 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 10-Q · 2026-08-11
Figures are as filed in audited 10-K reports and can move with restatements, acquisitions, disposals or a change in fiscal year. A range set from how past company-years turned out is not a promise about the next one, and says nothing about the share price. Reporting, not investment advice. No price targets and no trading recommendations. Figures from the SEC’s own data · every filing · this page as JSON · ask about another company