Weathered boatAdvance Auto Parts $AAP
Saw revenue fall 5.4% in FY2026 to $8.6 billion, operating margin -0.5% against a 4.0% median for auto & home supply stores, equity 18.6% of assets.
Last filing10-Q, 20 Aug 2026
Edgarette’s full reading · exposure, experience, soundness, credibility, range
🫧 Edgar looked up ADVANCE AUTO PARTS, INC. ($AAP). Last filing: 10-Q, 2026-08-20. 7 event filings (8-K) in the past twelve months.
🔖 Exposure: revenue $8.6B (FY2026), total debt $3.4B. Experience: revenue down 5.4% on the year, down 6.0% a year over 4 years; operating margin -0.5%, up from -7.8%. Soundness: equity 18.6% of assets, return on equity 2.0%, payout 136.4% of profit. Credibility: four or more audited years, reasonable weight. Range: 80% of past cases like this landed between $7.1B and $9.3B next year (method v4.1: its own 5-year record of growth weighed at 57% against $1B–10B filers; across 2019–2025, 69.0% landed inside, 83.4% on the one year the method never saw). In a shock year the stress range is $6.4B to $10.3B. A statistical range, not company guidance. Against peers (17 filers, $50M+ revenue, its industry group): operating margin -0.5% against a 4.0% median; growth -5.4% against 4.2%.
Read from its own SEC filings · nothing written, nothing inferred
Gold paid out, navy kept. Kept share × return on equity = the growth it can fund itself. Facts from the filings, not a recommendation.
Speed and cash · fiscal 2025
Both views must agree for a label · a description, not advice.
| Cash flow (op · inv · fin · free) | −$46M · −$239M · $1.5B · −$298M |
| Investment book (cash · short · long) | $3.1B · — · — · current ratio 1.75 |
| Revenue swing · equity of assets | 8.6% · 18.6% |
Advance Auto Parts is growing slower than its size class, with steadier revenue. Its own audited SEC figures.
The figures, as filed
| Fiscal year end | 2026-01-03 |
| Revenue | $8.6B |
| Revenue, on the year | −5.4% |
| Revenue, a year over the record | −6.0% |
| Operating margin | −0.5% |
| Operating margin, prior year | −7.8% |
| Net margin | 0.5% |
| Research and development | not filed separately |
| Total debt | $3.4B |
| Equity of assets | 18.6% |
| Return on equity | 2.0% |
| Payout of profit | 136.4% |
| Dividend per share | $1 |
| Earnings per share | $0.73 |
| Book value per share | $36.27 |
| Revenue per share | $141.93 |
| Shares outstanding | 60,600,000 |
| Audited years read | 5 |
Peers: the median of 17 filers with $50M+ revenue in retail-auto & home supply stores.
Classic signals · fiscal 2026Altman Z″ 3.09 safe zone 1968Piotroski F 4 of 9 middling 2000Beneish M -2.87 below the −1.78 line 1999Sloan accruals 0.8% earnings backed by cash 1996DuPont ROE 2% = margin 0.5% × turns 0.76 × leverage 5.18
What a terminal subscription used to buy, a filing and arithmetic now give anyone. Published method, from the same filings. Display only: nothing here moves the range or its receipt. Why? →
Health HarborAdvance Auto Parts sails as: Weathered boat
Health watch · 12 monthsDirector or officer change ×3
Sailing speed follows growth: -2.0% a year crosses the harbor in 86 seconds.
🌊 Visit the Bay →- operating cash flow was negative
- operating loss: a margin of -0.5% in FY2026
Boat condition = number of warning signs: a serious warning filing in 12 months; liabilities over assets; slow and jumpy; negative operating cash; an operating loss; negative free cash flow outside regulated utilities; an 80% revenue range of ±25% or wider. A picture of the signs, not a rating and not investment advice.
Brand success factors · calendar 2025
The Trillion Score: 445
Exponential Success Score
Built on over $200 trillion of sworn revenue, 13 years of data, 770,002 figures. Sealed by Edgarette.
How The Trillion Score works. We read eight measures of success from Advance Auto Parts's own SEC filings and test each one against the public companies in its field, here auto & home supply stores. The longer and fuller the record, the more weight those results carry. A model built on past filings then turns them into the odds of thriving, which means outgrowing the field for three years without a severe decline. A score of 500 is about average, and every 100 points doubles the odds. Every company is ranked on this same scale.
What it says here. At 445, Advance Auto Parts's odds of thriving come to 28%, against about 37% for the typical filer. It meets 4 of 8 success points.
What the score means
The higher the score, the more often companies went on to thrive. At this level, about 31 of every 100 did.
Share of companies that beat their field for three years with no severe decline, tested on 2019 to 2022 filings.
Fall Risk: Medium
Separate from the score, this asks what could go wrong: the odds of sales falling 30% or the filings stopping within three years. In the tests, about 22 of every 100 companies in the Medium band did. That is the group's history, not a forecast for this company.
| Money | It burned about 4 cents of free cash on each sales dollar after paying for its plants and equipment. Its cash would cover that burn for ten years or more. Debt after cash comes to about 3 cents for each dollar of yearly sales. | low |
| Swings | In its worst fifth of years, sales fell about 18% a year. | -18.4% a year |
| Filed events | In the last two years it told the SEC about 9 filings on leadership or auditor changes. | 9 |
The eight success points
| Point | What it means | Place in field | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speed | Sales grew slower than much of its field. | 20 of 100 | Not yet |
| Steadiness | Growth swung a lot for what it delivered. | 0 of 100 | Not yet |
| Price premium | It keeps more of each sales dollar than most of its field. | 60 of 100 | Met |
| Margin stays above the field | Its margin has held above the field year after year. | 100 of 100 | Met |
| Moat half-life | Its margin edge is fading slowly, if at all. | 60 of 100 | Met |
| Brand spend yield | Brand spending returns less gross profit than for the leaders in its field. | 0 of 100 | Not yet |
| Learning curve | Costs have not fallen much as a share of sales as it grew. | 0 of 100 | Not yet |
| Climb in the field | It has been moving up the size ranks in its field. | 60 of 100 | Met |
Price premium $916M is the extra gross profit over a field-median margin. Momentum -$77M is gross profit times growth above the field's pace.
The actuarial view
| Credibility | With 8 years of filings, the record earns 70% of the weight. The rest stays at the middle of the field. | 0.70 |
| Severe decline, class B | About 26 of every 100 companies with this many points fell 30% or stopped reporting within three years. | 26.1% |
| Actual vs expected | Sales are 6% lower than if it had simply kept pace with its field. | 0.94 |
Top of its field: #1 O Reilly Automotive · #2 Autozone · #3 OneWater Marine · #4 CarParts.com · #5 Advance Auto Parts
Ranked by The Trillion Score. See the method and score your own brand. Tested on 2019 to 2022 filings. Odds, class and Fall Risk figures are the experience of similar filers, not a forecast for this company. A statistical description of past filings, not a rating or advice.
- 10-Q · 2026-08-20
- 8-K · 2026-08-20 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-06-26 · 5.02 Departure or Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-05-22 · 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 10-Q · 2026-05-21
- 8-K · 2026-05-21 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
Figures are as filed in audited 10-K reports and can move with restatements, acquisitions, disposals or a change in fiscal year. A range set from how past company-years turned out is not a promise about the next one, and says nothing about the share price. Reporting, not investment advice. No price targets and no trading recommendations. Figures from the SEC’s own data · every filing · this page as JSON · ask about another company