New shipCaterpillar $CAT
Grew revenue 4.3% in FY2025 to $67.6 billion, operating margin 16.5% against a 7.2% median for construction machinery & equip, equity 21.6% of assets, and dividend per share up 18 years running.
Last filing8-K · Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition, 29 Oct 2026
Edgarette’s full reading · exposure, experience, soundness, credibility, range
🫧 Edgar looked up CATERPILLAR INC ($CAT). Last filing: 8-K (2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition), 2026-10-29. 11 event filings (8-K) in the past twelve months.
🔖 Exposure: revenue $67.6B (FY2025), total debt $30.7B. Experience: revenue up 4.3% on the year, up 7.3% a year over 4 years; operating margin 16.5%, down from 20.2%. Soundness: equity 21.6% of assets, return on equity 41.7%, payout 31.0% of profit, dividend per share up 18 years running. Credibility: four or more audited years, reasonable weight. Range: 80% of past cases like this landed between $61.5B and $75.5B next year (method v4.1: its own 4-year record of growth weighed at 50% against $10B+ filers; across 2019–2025, 69.0% landed inside, 83.4% on the one year the method never saw). In a shock year the stress range is $56.1B to $82.0B. A statistical range, not company guidance. Against peers (18 filers, $50M+ revenue, its industry group): operating margin 16.5% against a 7.2% median; growth 4.3% against 4.5%.
Read from its own SEC filings · nothing written, nothing inferred
Gold paid out, navy kept. Kept share × return on equity = the growth it can fund itself. Facts from the filings, not a recommendation.
Speed and cash · fiscal 2025
Both views must agree for a label · a description, not advice.
| Cash flow (op · inv · fin · free) | $11.7B · −$4.7B · −$3.9B · $8.9B |
| Investment book (cash · short · long) | $10.0B · $748M · $2.1B · current ratio 1.44 |
| Revenue swing · equity of assets | 8.4% · 21.6% |
Caterpillar is growing faster than its size class, with revenue that swings more. Its own audited SEC figures.
The figures, as filed
| Fiscal year end | 2025-12-31 |
| Revenue | $67.6B |
| Revenue, on the year | 4.3% |
| Revenue, a year over the record | 7.3% |
| Operating margin | 16.5% |
| Operating margin, prior year | 20.2% |
| Net margin | 13.1% |
| Research and development | $2.1B · 3.2% of revenue |
| Total debt | $30.7B |
| Equity of assets | 21.6% |
| Return on equity | 41.7% |
| Payout of profit | 31.0% |
| Dividend per share | $5.94 · up 18 years running |
| Earnings per share | $18.9 |
| Book value per share | $45.14 |
| Revenue per share | $143.11 |
| Shares outstanding | 472,300,000 |
| Audited years read | 5 |
Peers: the median of 18 filers with $50M+ revenue in construction machinery & equip.
Classic signals · fiscal 2025Altman Z″ 4.27 safe zone 1968Piotroski F 6 of 9 solid 2000Beneish M -2.4 below the −1.78 line 1999Sloan accruals -3.1% earnings backed by cash 1996DuPont ROE 43.5% = margin 13.1% × turns 0.73 × leverage 4.57
What a terminal subscription used to buy, a filing and arithmetic now give anyone. Published method, from the same filings. Display only: nothing here moves the range or its receipt. Why? →
Health HarborCaterpillar sails as: New ship
Health watch · 12 monthsDirector or officer change ×3
Sailing speed follows growth: 4.4% a year crosses the harbor in 67 seconds.
🌊 Visit the Bay →No warning signs on the measures below.
Boat condition = number of warning signs: a serious warning filing in 12 months; liabilities over assets; slow and jumpy; negative operating cash; an operating loss; negative free cash flow outside regulated utilities; an 80% revenue range of ±25% or wider. A picture of the signs, not a rating and not investment advice.
Brand success factors · calendar 2025
The Trillion Score: 563
Exponential Success Score
Built on over $200 trillion of sworn revenue, 13 years of data, 770,002 figures. Sealed by Edgarette.
How The Trillion Score works. We read eight measures of success from Caterpillar's own SEC filings and test each one against the public companies in its field, here oil & gas field machinery & equipment. The longer and fuller the record, the more weight those results carry. A model built on past filings then turns them into the odds of thriving, which means outgrowing the field for three years without a severe decline. A score of 500 is about average, and every 100 points doubles the odds. Every company is ranked on this same scale.
What it says here. At 563, Caterpillar's odds of thriving come to 47%, against about 37% for the typical filer. It meets 5 of 8 success points.
What the score means
The higher the score, the more often companies went on to thrive. At this level, about 44 of every 100 did.
Share of companies that beat their field for three years with no severe decline, tested on 2019 to 2022 filings.
Fall Risk: Low
Separate from the score, this asks what could go wrong: the odds of sales falling 30% or the filings stopping within three years. In the tests, about 7 of every 100 companies in the Low band did. That is the group's history, not a forecast for this company.
| Money | It keeps about 13 cents of free cash from each sales dollar after paying for its plants and equipment. Debt after cash comes to about 31 cents for each dollar of yearly sales. | low |
| Swings | In its worst fifth of years, sales fell about 25% a year. | -25.4% a year |
| Filed events | In the last two years it told the SEC about 3 filings on leadership or auditor changes. | 3 |
The eight success points
| Point | What it means | Place in field | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speed | Sales grew slower than much of its field. | 52 of 100 | Not yet |
| Steadiness | Growth swung a lot for what it delivered. | 59 of 100 | Not yet |
| Price premium | It keeps more of each sales dollar than most of its field. | 86 of 100 | Met |
| Margin stays above the field | Its margin has held above the field year after year. | 75 of 100 | Met |
| Moat half-life | Its margin edge is fading slowly, if at all. | 94 of 100 | Met |
| Brand spend yield | Brand spending returns more gross profit than for most of its field. | 90 of 100 | Met |
| Learning curve | Costs fell as a share of sales as it grew. | 71 of 100 | Met |
| Climb in the field | It has not been moving up the size ranks in its field. | 12 of 100 | Not yet |
The actuarial view
| Credibility | With 8 years of filings, the record earns 70% of the weight. The rest stays at the middle of the field. | 0.70 |
| Severe decline, class B | About 26 of every 100 companies with this many points fell 30% or stopped reporting within three years. | 26.1% |
| Actual vs expected | Sales are 0% higher than if it had simply kept pace with its field. | 1.00 |
Top of its field: #1 Innovex International · #2 Cactus · #3 Solaris Energy Infrastructure · #4 Columbus McKinnon · #5 Caterpillar
Ranked by The Trillion Score. See the method and score your own brand. Tested on 2019 to 2022 filings. Odds, class and Fall Risk figures are the experience of similar filers, not a forecast for this company. A statistical description of past filings, not a rating or advice.
- 8-K · 2026-10-29 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-10-15 · 5.02 Departure or Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-09-01 · 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 10-Q · 2026-08-05
- 8-K · 2026-08-04 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-06-11 · 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
Figures are as filed in audited 10-K reports and can move with restatements, acquisitions, disposals or a change in fiscal year. A range set from how past company-years turned out is not a promise about the next one, and says nothing about the share price. Reporting, not investment advice. No price targets and no trading recommendations. Figures from the SEC’s own data · every filing · this page as JSON · ask about another company