Weathered boatHighPeak Energy $HPK
Saw revenue fall 22.7% in FY2025 to $863 million, operating margin 17.4% against a 8.0% median for drilling oil & gas wells, equity 49.6% of assets.
Last filing8-K · Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, 6 Oct 2026
Edgarette’s full reading · exposure, experience, soundness, credibility, range
🫧 Edgar looked up HighPeak Energy, Inc. ($HPK). Last filing: 8-K (1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement), 2026-10-06. 9 event filings (8-K) in the past twelve months.
🔖 Exposure: revenue $863.4M (FY2025), total debt $1.2B. Experience: revenue down 22.7% on the year, up 40.7% a year over 4 years; operating margin 17.4%, down from 30.2%. Soundness: equity 49.6% of assets, return on equity 1.2%, payout 110.3% of profit. Credibility: four or more audited years, reasonable weight. Range: 80% of past cases like this landed between $361.6M and $1.7B next year (method v4.1: its own 4-year record of growth weighed at 50% against $100M–1B filers; across 2019–2025, 69.0% landed inside, 83.4% on the one year the method never saw). In a shock year the stress range is $245.3M to $2.5B. A statistical range, not company guidance. Against peers (8 filers, $50M+ revenue, drilling oil & gas wells): operating margin 17.4% against a 8.0% median; growth -22.7% against 5.6%.
Read from its own SEC filings · nothing written, nothing inferred
Gold paid out, navy kept. Kept share × return on equity = the growth it can fund itself. Facts from the filings, not a recommendation.
Speed and cash · fiscal 2025
Both views must agree for a label · a description, not advice.
| Cash flow (op · inv · fin · free) | $512M · −$515M · $79M · — |
| Investment book (cash · short · long) | $162M · — · — · current ratio 1.13 |
| Revenue swing · equity of assets | 65.4% · 49.6% |
HighPeak Energy is growing slower than its size class, with revenue that swings more. Its own audited SEC figures.
The figures, as filed
| Fiscal year end | 2025-12-31 |
| Revenue | $863M |
| Revenue, on the year | −22.7% |
| Revenue, a year over the record | 40.7% |
| Operating margin | 17.4% |
| Operating margin, prior year | 30.2% |
| Net margin | 2.2% |
| Research and development | not filed separately |
| Total debt | $1.2B |
| Equity of assets | 49.6% |
| Return on equity | 1.2% |
| Payout of profit | 110.3% |
| Dividend per share | $0.16 |
| Earnings per share | $0.14 |
| Book value per share | $12.72 |
| Revenue per share | $6.89 |
| Shares outstanding | 125,330,000 |
| Audited years read | 5 |
Peers: the median of 8 filers with $50M+ revenue in drilling oil & gas wells.
Classic signals · fiscal 2025Altman Z″ 1.85 grey zone 1968Piotroski F 5 of 9 middling 2000Beneish M not enough filed detail (needs receivables, cost of revenue, PP&E, depreciation, SG&A for two years)Sloan accruals -15.7% earnings backed by cash 1996DuPont ROE 1.2% = margin 2.2% × turns 0.28 × leverage 1.96
What a terminal subscription used to buy, a filing and arithmetic now give anyone. Published method, from the same filings. Display only: nothing here moves the range or its receipt. Why? →
Health HarborHighPeak Energy sails as: Weathered boat
Health watch · 12 monthsDirector or officer change
Sailing speed follows growth: 4.5% a year crosses the harbor in 66 seconds.
🌊 Visit the Bay →- slow and jumpy: growing slower than its size class, with revenue that swings more
- revenue is hard to predict: its 80% range is ±65%
Boat condition = number of warning signs: a serious warning filing in 12 months; liabilities over assets; slow and jumpy; negative operating cash; an operating loss; negative free cash flow outside regulated utilities; an 80% revenue range of ±25% or wider. A picture of the signs, not a rating and not investment advice.
Brand success factors · calendar 2025
The Trillion Score: 555
Exponential Success Score
Built on over $200 trillion of sworn revenue, 13 years of data, 770,002 figures. Sealed by Edgarette.
How The Trillion Score works. We read eight measures of success from HighPeak Energy's own SEC filings and test each one against the public companies in its field, here oil & gas field services. The longer and fuller the record, the more weight those results carry. A model built on past filings then turns them into the odds of thriving, which means outgrowing the field for three years without a severe decline. A score of 500 is about average, and every 100 points doubles the odds. Every company is ranked on this same scale.
What it says here. At 555, HighPeak Energy's odds of thriving come to 46%, against about 37% for the typical filer. It meets 4 of 5 success points.
What the score means
The higher the score, the more often companies went on to thrive. At this level, about 44 of every 100 did.
Share of companies that beat their field for three years with no severe decline, tested on 2019 to 2022 filings.
Fall Risk: Medium
Separate from the score, this asks what could go wrong: the odds of sales falling 30% or the filings stopping within three years. In the tests, about 22 of every 100 companies in the Medium band did. That is the group's history, not a forecast for this company.
| Money | It keeps about 59 cents of free cash from each sales dollar after paying for its plants and equipment. Debt after cash comes to about 112 cents for each dollar of yearly sales. | low |
| Swings | Not enough years on file. | not filed |
| Filed events | In the last two years it told the SEC about 3 filings on leadership or auditor changes. | 3 |
The eight success points
| Point | What it means | Place in field | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speed | Sales grew slower than much of its field. | 44 of 100 | Not yet |
| Steadiness | Growth was strong for how much it swung, so it looks dependable. | 85 of 100 | Met |
| Price premium | It keeps more of each sales dollar than most of its field. | 87 of 100 | Met |
| Margin stays above the field | Its margin has held above the field year after year. | 100 of 100 | Met |
| Moat half-life | Not filed. | ||
| Brand spend yield | Not filed. | ||
| Learning curve | Not filed. | ||
| Climb in the field | It has been moving up the size ranks in its field. | 63 of 100 | Met |
The actuarial view
| Credibility | With 6 years of filings, the record earns 39% of the weight. The rest stays at the middle of the field. | 0.39 |
| Severe decline, class A | About 22 of every 100 companies with this many points fell 30% or stopped reporting within three years. | 21.8% |
| Actual vs expected | Sales are 3% lower than if it had simply kept pace with its field. | 0.97 |
Top of its field: #1 Transocean · #2 Natural Gas Services · #3 Noble · #4 HighPeak Energy · #5 RPC
Ranked by The Trillion Score. See the method and score your own brand. Tested on 2019 to 2022 filings. Odds, class and Fall Risk figures are the experience of similar filers, not a forecast for this company. A statistical description of past filings, not a rating or advice.
- 8-K · 2026-10-06 · 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; 3.02 Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 10-Q · 2026-08-10
- 8-K · 2026-08-10 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-06-30 · 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-06-02 · 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders
- 8-K · 2026-05-06 · 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
Figures are as filed in audited 10-K reports and can move with restatements, acquisitions, disposals or a change in fiscal year. A range set from how past company-years turned out is not a promise about the next one, and says nothing about the share price. Reporting, not investment advice. No price targets and no trading recommendations. Figures from the SEC’s own data · every filing · this page as JSON · ask about another company