Rotting at the dockNocera $NCRA
Saw revenue fall 35.2% in FY2025 to $11 million, equity -4.4% of assets.
Last filing8-K · Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, 23 Sept 2026
Edgarette’s full reading · exposure, experience, soundness, credibility, range
🫧 Edgar looked up NOCERA, INC. ($NCRA). Last filing: 8-K (1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement), 2026-09-23. 17 event filings (8-K) in the past twelve months. Auditor change (8-K Item 4.01) filed 2026-02-03. Non-reliance (8-K Item 4.02) filed 2026-08-17.
🔖 Exposure: revenue $11.0M (FY2025). Experience: revenue down 35.2% on the year, up 30.2% a year over 4 years. Soundness: equity -4.4% of assets (liabilities exceed assets). Credibility: four or more audited years, reasonable weight. Range: 80% of past cases like this landed between $2.5M and $29.3M next year (method v4.1: its own 6-year record of growth weighed at 63% against under $50M filers; across 2019–2025, 69.0% landed inside, 83.4% on the one year the method never saw). In a shock year the stress range is $2.1M to $34.8M. A statistical range, not company guidance.
Read from its own SEC filings · nothing written, nothing inferred
Speed and cash · fiscal 2025
Both views must agree for a label · a description, not advice.
| Cash flow (op · inv · fin · free) | −$3M · −$0M · $10M · — |
| Investment book (cash · short · long) | $8M · — · — · current ratio 11.93 |
| Revenue swing · equity of assets | 75.9% · -4.4% |
Nocera is growing slower than its size class, with revenue that swings more. Its own audited SEC figures.
The figures, as filed
| Fiscal year end | 2025-12-31 |
| Revenue | $11M |
| Revenue, on the year | −35.2% |
| Revenue, a year over the record | 30.2% |
| Operating margin | — |
| Operating margin, prior year | — |
| Net margin | −26.1% |
| Research and development | not filed separately |
| Total debt | — |
| Equity of assets | −4.4% |
| Return on equity | — |
| Payout of profit | — |
| Dividend per share | — |
| Earnings per share | $-6.1524 |
| Book value per share | $-0.92 |
| Revenue per share | $22.93 |
| Shares outstanding | 481,121 |
| Audited years read | 5 |
Classic signals · fiscal 2025Altman Z″ not enough filed detail (needs current assets and liabilities, retained earnings, operating income)Piotroski F 3 of 9 middling 2000Beneish M not enough filed detail (needs receivables, cost of revenue, PP&E, depreciation, SG&A for two years)Sloan accruals -4.6% earnings backed by cash 1996DuPont ROE -348.4% = margin -26.1% × turns 1.69 × leverage 7.87
What a terminal subscription used to buy, a filing and arithmetic now give anyone. Published method, from the same filings. Display only: nothing here moves the range or its receipt. Why? →
Health HarborNocera sails as: Rotting at the dock
Health watch · 12 monthsLate annual report noticeExchange listing notice or transfer ×3Debt accelerated or triggeredEarlier statements no longer to be relied onAuditor changeDirector or officer change ×2
Tied up at the dock.
🌊 Visit the Bay →- filed late annual report notice, debt accelerated or triggered, earlier statements no longer to be relied on, auditor change in the last 12 months
- liabilities exceed assets (often from years of share buybacks, not always distress)
- slow and jumpy: growing slower than its size class, with revenue that swings more
- operating cash flow was negative
- revenue is hard to predict: its 80% range is ±84%
Boat condition = number of warning signs: a serious warning filing in 12 months; liabilities over assets; slow and jumpy; negative operating cash; an operating loss; negative free cash flow outside regulated utilities; an 80% revenue range of ±25% or wider. A picture of the signs, not a rating and not investment advice.
Brand success factors · calendar 2025
The Trillion Score: 454
Exponential Success Score
Built on over $200 trillion of sworn revenue, 13 years of data, 770,002 figures. Sealed by Edgarette.
How The Trillion Score works. We read eight measures of success from Nocera's own SEC filings and test each one against the public companies in its field, here agricultural services. The longer and fuller the record, the more weight those results carry. A model built on past filings then turns them into the odds of thriving, which means outgrowing the field for three years without a severe decline. A score of 500 is about average, and every 100 points doubles the odds. Every company is ranked on this same scale.
What it says here. At 454, Nocera's odds of thriving come to 29%, against about 37% for the typical filer. It meets 2 of 7 success points.
What the score means
The higher the score, the more often companies went on to thrive. At this level, about 35 of every 100 did.
Share of companies that beat their field for three years with no severe decline, tested on 2019 to 2022 filings.
Fall Risk: High
Separate from the score, this asks what could go wrong: the odds of sales falling 30% or the filings stopping within three years. In the tests, about 41 of every 100 companies in the High band did. That is the group's history, not a forecast for this company.
| Money | It burned about 23 cents of free cash on each sales dollar after paying for its plants and equipment. Its cash would cover that burn for about 3.1 years. | cash negative over five years |
| Swings | In its worst fifth of years, sales fell about 100% a year. | -100.0% a year |
| Filed events | In the last two years it told the SEC about 4 filings on restatements, delisting notices, bankruptcy or debt defaults, and 4 filings on leadership or auditor changes. | 8 |
The eight success points
| Point | What it means | Place in field | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speed | Sales grew slower than much of its field. | 17 of 100 | Not yet |
| Steadiness | Growth was strong for how much it swung, so it looks dependable. | 83 of 100 | Met |
| Price premium | It keeps less of each sales dollar than the leaders in its field. | 17 of 100 | Not yet |
| Margin stays above the field | Its margin has not held above the field for long. | 20 of 100 | Not yet |
| Moat half-life | Not filed. | ||
| Brand spend yield | Brand spending returns less gross profit than for the leaders in its field. | 20 of 100 | Not yet |
| Learning curve | Costs have not fallen much as a share of sales as it grew. | 0 of 100 | Not yet |
| Climb in the field | It has been moving up the size ranks in its field. | 83 of 100 | Met |
Price premium -$1M is the extra gross profit over a field-median margin. Momentum $0M is gross profit times growth above the field's pace.
The actuarial view
| Credibility | With 8 years of filings, the record earns 61% of the weight. The rest stays at the middle of the field. | 0.61 |
| Severe decline, class C | About 30 of every 100 companies with this many points fell 30% or stopped reporting within three years. | 30.1% |
| Actual vs expected | Sales are 15% lower than if it had simply kept pace with its field. | 0.85 |
Top of its field: #1 BrightView · #2 Mission Produce · #3 Cal-Maine Foods · #4 Davey Tree Expert · #5 Nocera
Ranked by The Trillion Score. See the method and score your own brand. Tested on 2019 to 2022 filings. Odds, class and Fall Risk figures are the experience of similar filers, not a forecast for this company. A statistical description of past filings, not a rating or advice.
- 8-K · 2026-09-23 · 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-08-19 · 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; 5.02 Departure or Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-08-17 · 4.02 Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements
- 8-K · 2026-08-13 · 2.01 Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets; 3.01 Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Listing Rule; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 10-Q · 2026-08-05
- 8-K · 2026-07-31 · 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; 2.04 Triggering Events That Accelerate a Financial Obligation; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
Figures are as filed in audited 10-K reports and can move with restatements, acquisitions, disposals or a change in fiscal year. A range set from how past company-years turned out is not a promise about the next one, and says nothing about the share price. Reporting, not investment advice. No price targets and no trading recommendations. Figures from the SEC’s own data · every filing · this page as JSON · ask about another company