Nvidia $NVDA Read from its own SEC filings · nothing written, nothing inferred
🫧 Edgar looked up NVIDIA CORP ($NVDA). Last filing: 8-K (8.01 Other Events), 2026-09-03. 13 event filings (8-K) in the past twelve months.
🔖 Exposure: revenue $215.9B (FY2026), total debt $8.5B. Experience: revenue up 65.5% on the year, up 68.6% a year over 4 years; operating margin 60.4%, down from 62.4%. Soundness: equity 76.1% of assets, return on equity 76.3%, payout 0.8% of profit, dividend per share up 1 year running. Credibility: four or more audited years, reasonable weight. Range: 80% of past cases like this landed between $269.4B and $528.1B next year (method v4.1: its own 5-year record of growth weighed at 57% against $10B+ filers; on a year the method never saw, 83.4% landed inside). In a shock year the stress range is $200.5B to $691.6B. A statistical range, not company guidance. Against peers (63 filers, $50M+ revenue, semiconductors & related devices): operating margin 60.4% against a 2.4% median; growth 65.5% against 15.5%.
Gold paid out, navy kept. Kept share × return on equity = the growth it can fund itself. Facts from the filings, not a recommendation.
Speed and cash · fiscal 2025
Both views must agree for a label · a description, not advice.
| Cash flow (op · inv · fin · free) | $102.7B · −$52.2B · −$48.5B · $96.7B |
| Investment book (cash · short · long) | $10.6B · $20.4B · $19.1B · current ratio 3.91 · unrealized $168M |
| Revenue swing · equity of assets | 37.1% · 76.1% |
Nvidia is growing faster than its size class, with revenue that swings more. Its own audited SEC figures.
The figures, as filed
| Fiscal year end | 2026-01-25 |
| Revenue | $215.9B |
| Revenue, on the year | 65.5% |
| Revenue, a year over the record | 68.6% |
| Operating margin | 60.4% |
| Operating margin, prior year | 62.4% |
| Net margin | 55.6% |
| Research and development | $18.5B · 8.6% of revenue |
| Total debt | $8.5B |
| Equity of assets | 76.1% |
| Return on equity | 76.3% |
| Payout of profit | 0.8% |
| Dividend per share | $0.04 · up 1 year running |
| Earnings per share | $4.93 |
| Book value per share | $6.42 |
| Revenue per share | $8.81 |
| Shares outstanding | 24,514,000,000 |
| Audited years read | 5 |
Peers: the median of 63 filers with $50M+ revenue in semiconductors & related devices.
Health HarborNvidia sails as: Sound ship
Health watch · 12 monthsDirector or officer change ×5
Sailing speed follows growth: 100.0% a year crosses the harbor in 30 seconds.
🌊 Visit the Bay →- revenue is hard to predict: its 80% range is ±32%
Boat condition = number of warning signs: a serious warning filing in 12 months; liabilities over assets; slow and jumpy; negative operating cash; an 80% revenue range of ±25% or wider. A picture of the signs, not a rating and not investment advice.
- 8-K · 2026-09-03 · 8.01 Other Events
- 10-Q · 2026-08-26
- 8-K · 2026-08-26 · 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
- 8-K · 2026-08-17 · 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure
- 8-K · 2026-07-02 · 5.02 Departure or Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers
- 8-K · 2026-06-30 · 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders
Figures are as filed in audited 10-K reports and can move with restatements, acquisitions, disposals or a change in fiscal year. A range set from how past company-years turned out is not a promise about the next one, and says nothing about the share price. Reporting, not investment advice. No price targets and no trading recommendations. Figures from the SEC’s own data · every filing · this page as JSON · ask about another company