7% of the portfolio in companies with warning filings
the 10 largest holdings are 94.9% of the portfolio
Boat condition = number of warning signs: warning filings ≥ 5% of the portfolio; liabilities over assets ≥ 10%; slow and jumpy ≥ 30%; top 10 ≥ 60%; revenue ranges ≥ ±20%. A picture of the signs, not a rating and not investment advice.
How the portfolio did · Q2 2026
31 March 2026 → 30 June 2026. The 31 March 2026 stock book, valued at 30 June 2026 prices, both from the filer’s own 13F filings (earlier, later). No outside price feed.
+11.4%Stock book price return, Q2 2026
+14.6%iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), same method · gap −3.2%
17 of 22holdings rose in the quarter
100.0%of the book priced from both filings
Added most
Weight
Price
Points
Caterpillar Inc
14.2%
+50.3%
+7.15
Canadian Natl Ry Co
16.8%
+16.0%
+2.70
Berkshire Hathaway Inc Del
25.8%
+4.4%
+1.14
Deere & Co
6.3%
+12.6%
+0.80
Ecolab Inc
4.4%
+4.7%
+0.21
Cost most
Weight
Price
Points
Waste Mgmt Inc Del
20.1%
−3.0%
−0.60
Fedex Corp
2.7%
−12.1%
−0.32
Walmart Inc
3.3%
−8.9%
−0.29
Mcdonalds Corp
0.3%
−13.0%
−0.04
Coupang Inc
0.6%
−8.0%
−0.04
What changed
Count
Share of the book
New positions
2
1.5% of the 30 June 2026 book
Exited
0
0.0% of the 31 March 2026 book
Added to
0
share count up more than 2%
Trimmed
2
share count down more than 2%
Book value
$34.4B
from $31.7B (price moves plus buying and trimming)
Points = each holding’s contribution to the return, in percentage points. Price return of the stock book: the 2026-03-31 holdings valued at 2026-06-30 prices, both from the filer’s own 13Fs. Not the fund’s official return or funded status; dividends and trades between quarter ends are not in it. Display only, not advice.
Against the big portfolios · Q2 2026
The same quarter for everyone, 2026-03-31 → 2026-06-30, from each filer’s own 13F filings. Groups show the median and every member.
Share of the portfolio in companies that filed a warning event in the last 12 months. Lower is healthier.
Top-10 weight
94.9%
How much the 10 largest holdings carry. Higher means more rides on a few names.
Effective holdings
7
The portfolio behaves like this many equal holdings (1 ÷ Σ weight²). Higher is more diversified.
Largest sector
Industrials & services 64%
Of the holdings checked. Industrials & services 64% · Consumer 17% · Materials 10% · Transport 5% · Utilities 2%.
Revenue range
±11.0%
Weighted width of Edgarette’s tested 80% revenue ranges, on the 39% of the portfolio she covers. Narrower is more predictable.
Checked
41.5%
Share of the portfolio Health Watch has read.
Cash conversion
15.9%
Operating cash as a share of revenue, weighted. Higher = money arrives faster.
Growth speed
3.0% a year
Revenue growth per year over three years, weighted. The long-term engine.
Dividend payers
98% · raised 97%
Share of the covered portfolio in companies paying a common dividend, and raising it.
Dividend yield
0.9%
Common dividends paid in the latest fiscal year ÷ market value, weighted. Market value = the reported price × diluted shares.
Buyback yield
+0.9%
Shares bought back minus shares issued for cash, ÷ market value, weighted. From the cash-flow statements.
Starting valuation
52.5× earnings
Price ÷ earnings (P/E) of the covered portfolio, from net income as filed. Higher = more is already priced in.
Expected stock return
-9.5% to +12.1% a year
Building blocks (Grinold–Kroner): income yield +1.8% + revenue growth -11.2% to +10.3% from Edgarette’s 80% ranges + valuation change taken as 0. Midpoint +1.3%. Covers 39% (yields) and 39% (growth) of the portfolio. An assumption by a published method, not a promise or a price forecast.
Equity ratio
26.5%
Equity as a share of assets, weighted. Higher = less owed to others.
Liabilities over assets
0.7%
Share of the covered portfolio in companies whose liabilities exceed assets (often from buybacks, not always distress).
Cash Compass
🌊 Between 52%🍂 Fading 17%🐂 Steady 16%🐄 Now 14%⚡ Not yet 1%
13F lists US stocks and options only: no bonds, cash, private assets or liabilities, so it shows the stock book, not the funded status. Holdings are matched to SEC filers by ticker or name; the measures cover the matched share shown. Display only: a description from SEC filings, not a rating and not investment advice. Nothing pasted here is stored. Source: the 13F filing.
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The big portfolios, last quarter, from their own 13Fs:
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Committee brief · Edgar & Edgarette · POPS4 Filing Boards
Gates Foundation Trust
Prepared 2026-10-08 · SEC 13F-HR for 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14 · 24 stock holdings, 41.5% matched to SEC filers
Health Harbor: Weathered boat (two warning signs): 7% of the portfolio in companies with warning filings; the 10 largest holdings are 94.9% of the portfolio.
Measures
Warning share
7.0%
Checked by Health Watch
41.5%
Top-10 weight
94.9%
Effective holdings
7
Largest sector
Industrials & services 64%
Revenue range (80%)
±11.0%
Cash conversion
15.9%
Growth, 3-yr a year
3.0%
Dividend payers
98% · raised 97%
Equity ratio
26.5%
Liabilities over assets
0.7%
Covered by speed and cash
39.1%
Dividend · buyback yield
0.9% · 0.9%
Expected stock return (80%)
-9.5% to 12.1% a year
Last quarter, stock book
+11.4% (gap to S&P 500 −3.2%)
Cash Compass
🐄 cash cow now 14% · ⚡ fast, cash not yet 1% · 🐂 steady earner 16% · 🍂 fading 17% · 🌊 in between 52%. Each holding read through its own filings (inside view) and against same-size peers (outside view); a label needs both to agree.
Holdings with warning filings, last 12 months
ECL 4.22% (Restructuring or exit costs) · FDX 2.17% (Restructuring or exit costs) · CPNG 0.47% (Cybersecurity incident) · HRL 0.15% (Restructuring or exit costs)
Risks to watch
Concentrated: the 10 largest holdings are 94.9% of the portfolio.
Behaves like about 6 equal holdings (effective number), so a few companies drive the result.
Sector concentration: 64.1% of the checked holdings are Industrials & services.
7% of the portfolio is in companies that filed warning events in the last 12 months.
Health Watch covers only 41.5% of this portfolio; the rest is many small holdings not yet checked.
Holdings are as of 2026-06-30; the portfolio may have changed since.
